The Golden Mean, The Arab Spring And a 10-Step Analysis of American Economic History

Middle East Studies Online Journal- ISSN 2109-9618- Issue n°6. Volume 3 ( Summer 2011)

Etudes  du Moyen-Orient. N°6. Volume 3. ( Eté 2011)

.2011دراسات الشرق الأوسط، مجلة فكرية محكمة. العدد السادس . المجلد الثالث صيف


By Scott A. Albers* and Andrew L. Albers**


Abstract: The Long-Wave theories of Nikolai Kondratiev and others claim to find mathematic waves in economic and other social data which are at present in dispute.  Currently the theory is considered outside the scope of mainstream economics under a variety of rationales.

Despite the lack of mainstream acceptance, we make a strong case for the existence of long waves in the Real GNP of the United States with a 56 year cycle.  Our analysis bypasses many of the issues cited by Long-Wave theory critics and in fact clarifies the mathematical structure of the theory.


JEL classification: B41, B5, C01, C02, C50, C63, E00, E01, E10, E19, E30, N00, N01, N11, Z10, Z13


Keywords: Real GNP, Golden Mean, Fibonacci Series, Arab Spring, Phi, Long Wave, Long Cycle, Kondratiev Wave, Economic Forecasting, Economic Model, Global Financial Crisis, Constitutional Law, American Economic History, Revolution, Consolidation


Download the full paper (PDF):

The Golden Mean




APPENDIX 2.0 – Revised Data for Real GNP 1869 – 2009

* Scott Albers is a criminal defense attorney practicing law in Northwest Montana, U.S.A. (1994 –present), and previously Missouri (1986 – 1994).  He obtained a Juris Doctorate degree in 1986 at the University of Missouri School of Law in Columbia and maintains a long-term interest in international law and macroeconomics.  He may be contacted at

** Andrew Albers is a 2010 graduate at the Montana State University of Bozeman, U.S.A., with a Bachelor of Science degree in the teaching of mathematics and minors in computer science and the teaching of history.  He presently is employed as a mathematics instructor for the Northern Cheyenne Tribe in Southeast Montana.



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