General considerations and implications for the Arab world
Middle East Studies Journal: Issue N.1.Volume: 4. 2016.
By: Dr.Arno Tausch (Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Innsbruck University. Associate Professor of Economics, Corvinus University, Budapest).
Background: A positive assessment of the role of globalization as a driver of a good public health performance has been the result of major new studies in the field. But the present re-analysis shows that neo-liberal globalisation has resulted in increasing inequality, which in turn negatively affects global health performance. This conclusion is valid on a global level but it also holds for the majority of the Arab countries, which are currently undergoing very dramatic political and social transformations, which have fundamental repercussions for the Western world. Continue reading →
"U.S. support for democracy, governance, and human rights in the Middle East and North Africa is needed now as much as ever. This report aims to examine the degree and nature of that support, by way of the federal budget and appropriations process. It aims to analyze and assess the approach of the U.S. administration and Congress to budgets, spending, and foreign assistance, and to draw conclusions regarding broader priorities and thinking in terms of U.S. policy against the backdrop of dramatic political changes across the Arab world."
Abstract: The current revolutionary movement in large parts of the Muslim, especially the Arab world, which the present author is inclined to view as the Al Jazeera revolution (El-Nawawy and Iskander, 2002; Miles, 2005; Rushing and Elder, 2007; Seib, 2008) must be also viewed in the larger framework of the movements, trends and cycles of the global and the European economy, and the trends and cycles of global conflict in the world system. Are international conditions likely to support a generalized breakthrough towards democracy and human rights, especially in the Arab countries, or is the global economy and the European economy, the most important developed neighbouring region for the Arab countries, characterized by globalization, instability, and conflict?
Among the existing theoretical approaches, which are of relevance in this context, the contribution by the Austrian political economist Josef Steindl (1912 – 1993) should be especially mentioned as a policy alternative to the current and dominant, but waning Brussels/Paris neo-liberal consensus of the European Commission and the OECD, which still dominates the political economy of rich Europe in the neighbourhood of the revolting Arab world. Steindl (1952) empirically well established a relationship between economic stagnation and the growth of oligopoly in advanced capitalist countries. With Steindl, a secular tendency to stagnation in mature capitalist economies, brought about by monopolization, is to be expected, arrested by
• the rising share of the public sector;
• technical innovations and new products;
• international cooperation in economic policies;
• cooperation between business and trade unions; and
• a favourable political and economic climate.
in the post-war boom years, which raised effective demand. Since the early 1980s, income distribution has changed in favour of classes with high savings propensities; i.e. in most industrial countries, the share of wages and salaries in national income has been declining, while non-wage income, in particular property incomes have risen sharply, and income inequality between the rich and the poor has increased considerably. Especially in the countries of the EU, the burden of taxation has shifted from profits to wages – a process which reduced the expansionary effects of the public sector. Steindl’s European ‘policy of stagnation’ will continue for some time, since governments are preoccupied with inflation and the public debt (Steindl, 1979, p. 9). The waning political and economic landscape, which began to take shape already in the late 1970s and 1980s, was characterized by
• a macroeconomic policy being oriented primarily towards price stability and budget consolidation
• a declining international cooperation regarding economic policy (breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the establishment of a flexible exchange rate system in the early 1970s)
• increasing environmental and energy problems
• a political trend against full employment (already foreseen by Kalecki, 1943).
Steindl very strongly believed in the ‘political aspects of full employment’, and argued that the entrepreneurs were losing interest in full employment because of the increasing power of trade unions and employees as a consequence of full employment. This policy set-up was called by Steindl as the ‘return of the Bourbons’. In view of the current crisis in Greece, Ireland and in other Southern European countries (‘PIIGS’), Steindl remarked prophetically that it has to be avoided that debtor countries are forced into a painful policy of restrictions, causing low growth and high rates of unemployment, of which all countries would have to suffer.
In the empirical and cross-national as well as time-series part of our essay, we show the relevance of this pessimistic analysis of the international environment for the current Al Jazeera revolution. The Al Jazeera revolution and its emerging leadership has the unique historical opportunity to follow another political economic path, the path of employment and demand, which will characterize the new economic cycle in the post-2008 years, centred around the Indian Ocean area.
Every major revolution needs an appropriate international environment. Will the international environment for the Al Jazeera revolution be as peaceful as the one, which supported the victory of the ‘velvet revolution’ in Eastern Europe, 1989? An international revival of the K-cycle (Kondratiev-cycle) debate (i.e. severe economic crises all 50 years) by NATO’s Advanced Studies Institute exactly raises the question of the relevance of long cycles of war and international conflict far beyond the narrower borders of the political debates among limited left-wing circles (Devezas, 2006). In this second, empirical part of our essay, we show the relevance of these concepts, using econometric techniques of auto-correlation and cross-correlation of world industrial production growth, war intensity and defence pacts over many decades and centuries in the tradition of Goldstein, 1988, as well as country time series data for 117 nations since 1980, which all show that rising globalization and rising instability went hand in hand.
Our analysis also re-iterates empirical results, recently published by the Russian scholars Korotayev and Tsirel (2010) and has shown in addition the following things:
1) liberal and ‘Marxist’ analyses of all ‘denominations’ are right in emphasizing the severe cyclical fluctuations of the capitalist system on a global scale
2) there is a world political and world strategic swing of societal system, which accompanies the economic ups and downs
3) and three there is a striking similarity in the logic of the globalized period of the second half of the 19th Century with our age.
Globalization and monopolies lead towards stagnation. Josef Steindl emphasized this since the early 1950s. Some other great political economists of the instability of the international order, like Rosa Luxemburg and Otto Bauer, foresaw the dark clouds of major inner-capitalist wars on the horizon, and in the light of our analysis, we are not too far away from such dark times, if the logic of ‘madness’ called contemporary globalization, is not corrected.
B24 – History of Economic Thought since 1925: Socialist; Marxist; Sraffian
B25 – History of Economic Thought since 1925: Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian
B31 – History of Economic Thought: Individuals – Individuals
E32 – Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 – Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E11 – General Aggregative Models: Marxian; Sraffian; Institutional; Evolutionary
E12 – General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
H56 – National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: National Security and War
§ Arno Tausch is in his academic function Adjunct Professor (Universitaetsdozent) of Political Science at Innsbruck University, Department of Political Science, A-6020 Innsbruck University, Universitaetsstraße 15, 2nd Floor/West, A-6020 Innsbruck; Austria. Currently, he is also Visiting Professor of Economics, Corvinus University, Budapest, and Lecturer of International Development, Vienna University. He authored or co-authored books and articles for major international publishers and journals, among them 15 books in English, 2 in French, 7 books in German, and over 200 printed or electronic scholarly and current affairs publications in 7 languages in 29 countries around the globe. E-mail: email@example.com
Middle East Studies Online Journal- ISSN 2109-9618- Issue n°5. Volume 2 ( 2011) Etudes du Moyen-Orient. N°5. Volume 2. 2011 2011.دراسات الشرق الأوسط، مجلة فكرية محكمة. العدد الخامس . المجلد الثاني
NEW BOOK by: Arno Tausch with Chr. Bischof & K. Mueller
Rozenberg Publishers, Amsterdam
16,5 x 24 cm
248 pag. € 26,50
ISBN 978 90 5170 995 7
2011 Muslim calvinism (PDF)
This book systematically evaluates the freely available data, contained in the European Social Survey and other international, open sources, on the problems of internal security and social policy in Europe for the Muslim and the non-Muslim populations in Europe. It is the attempt to try to present an interpretation pattern for the complex reality of poverty; social exclusion, religious and societal values, and day to day contact of different population groups in Europe with the law.
The optimistic results are in line with recent quantitative research results, which maintain that instead of engaging in a culturalist discourse about the general “disadvantages” of Islam, Europe rather should talk about economic-growth-enhancing migration, property rights, discrimination against minorities on the labor markets, and that by and large, Islam as such is well compatible with democracy and economic growth. If there is anything as “integration deficits” of the Muslim communities inEuropevis-à-vis the law, defined in this study along ESS (European Social Survey) indicators of the “shadow economy”, document fraud as well as indicators of lack of trust in the police and in European institutions, these deficits are caused rather by market imperfections and market failures in the European political economy, largely characterized by state intervention, and not by any intrinsic destabilizing or simply “evil” “character traits” of Muslims. In many ways, the polarizing events in France area kind of laboratory and testing ground for our theories– high state sector involvement, a mediocre Lisbon performance, and a high, and increasing poverty among the country’s Muslims, which all contribute to rising social tensions, violence and protest inthe„banlieues”. Apart from presenting data from the European Social Survey, Tausch and associates evaluate and compare their country level ESS aggregate research results with other research materials, derived from cross-national political science and value research.
Thus, a variety of results and methods are presented– aggregations of survey results at the national level, cross-national comparisons of these survey results with cross-national political science data; factor analyses of the opinion and civic culture structure of the totality of Muslims and non-Muslims in all of Europe, multiple regressions of the determinants of their trust in the police, in democracy, and in personal happiness, and a re-linking of the “Muslim Calvinist” results with new global level data about migration, Islam, and national well-being. At the end of this exercise of quantitative political science, Tausch and associates arrive at the conclusion that Islamophobia is baseless, and that European Muslims; above all, deserve economic freedom, markets and respect.
Keywords: C2 – Single Equation Models; Single Variables; C43 – Index Numbers and Aggregation; D31 – Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions; F02 – International Economic Order; F15 – Economic Integration; F5 – International Relations and International Political Economy; H11 – Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government; H2 – Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; H26 – Tax Evasion; J70 – General – Labor Discrimination; O10– General – Economic Development; O17 – Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy;Institutional Arrangements; O57 – Comparative Studies of Countries; Z12 – Religion
‘The book provides a fascinating profile of the Muslim communities of Europe,based on a wide array of social science data, and investigates the problem of their social, economic, and political integration in Europe. The authors see the state of Muslim integration in Europe as a kind of litmus issue for the success or failure of the development of the European Union and its Lisbon Strategy. By examining deficits in the integration of one of Europe’s minorities, they can point to deficits in the current development of the European project. Broadly speaking, that is a deficit in the development of a social Europe. Similar to a recent study by the Bertelsmann Stiftung, the book argues that it is a mistake to treat relations with Muslim communities as nothing but a police and security problem, leading to Islamophobia, and emphasize the importance of the social and economic dimensions. In line with the Theory of Justice by Rawls, Muslim Calvinism by Tausch and associates takes the view that the society of Europe cannot be a just society if it fails to do justice to one of its disadvantaged minorities.’
Professor emeritus, Sheridan College, Oakville, Canada
World Political Cycles, Global Terrorism, and World Development
Arno Tausch* Abstract
In this article, we draw some optimistic, socio-liberal conclusions about Islam in the world system. Countering some alarmist voices in the West, neither migration nor Muslim culture are to be blamed for the contemporary crisis, but the very nature of unequal capitalist accumulation and dependency that is at the core of the world capitalist system.
For one, our analysis is based on current thinking on Kondratiev waves of world political development inherent in recent work by IIASA and the NATO Institute for Advanced Studies. First we present a rigorous re-analysis of United States Department of State data on acts of global terrorism in the framework of Kondratiev cycle waves. Continue reading →
New book, by: Arno Tausch (Innsbruck Univ. Innsbruck, Austria)
This book is based on the quantitative, multivariate analysis of the World Values Survey data from more than 80 countries around the globe on the political and social values of the world’s Muslim communities by international comparison. Global Muslims and also the Muslim communities in Western democracies are value-conservative, family-oriented, but supportive of democracy.This study takes up the idea of “Asabiyya” (“social cohesion”), inherent in classic Arab historiography, first described by Ibn Chaldun (1332 to 1406) in his important work “Muqaddimah”. Is “moderinzation” without “spiritual values” possible in the long run? As a way out from the modernization trap of societies, characterized by large-scale social anomaly, the “active society” of volunteer organization work is the best societal medicine against this kind of value decay, which is so common in countries like France, Brazil, or most of East Central Europe and the former USSR. An active form of religious or non-religious humanism, which provides a noble motivation for such activities as volunteer social services, is a very necessary precondition for social cohesion in the 21st Century. Continue reading →
Arno Tausch, Christian Bischof and Karl Mueller
Department of Political Science, Innsbruck University
This paper systematically evaluates the freely available data, contained in the European Social Survey and other international, open sources, on the problems of internal security and social policy in Europe for the Muslim and the non-Muslim populations in Europe. It is the attempt to try to present an interpretation pattern for the complex reality of poverty; social exclusion, religious and societal values, and day to day contact of different population groups in Europe with the law.
A variety of results and methods are presented – aggregations of survey results at the national level, cross-national comparisons of these survey results with cross-national political science data; factor analyses of the opinion and civic culture structure of the totality of Muslims and non-Muslims in all of Europe, multiple regressions of the determinants of their trust in the police, in democracy, and in personal happiness, and a re-linking of the “Muslim Calvinist” results with new global level data about migration, Islam, and national well-being. At the end of this exercise of quantitative political science, Tausch and associates arrive at the conclusion that Islamophobia is baseless, and that European Muslims; above all, deserve economic freedom, markets and respect. Continue reading →
With the process of a “wide Europe” (EU-Commission President Romano Prodi’s “ring of friends”) that extends from Marrakech in Morocco to St. Petersburg in Russia gathering speed, the growing rift between Europe and America also is about how to deal politically with the countries of the Mediterranean-Muslim world. The house of Islam (Dar al Islam) was pivotal to the European path to the Renaissance and to the rediscovery of classic Greek philosophy.
The Mediterranean policy of the European Union aims at a positive and cooperative relationship with the region. A successful integration of the Mediterranean South would have tremendous and positive repercussions for regional and world peace. World-wide leading experts from the field of world systems analysis, economics, integration theory, political science, theology and area studies, agnostics, Christians, Jews and Muslims alike discuss the issue with
European decision makers. The outcome is an interdisciplinary evaluation of this projected export of peace, cooperation, dialogue and stability in the framework of world center-periphery relationships.
Contributors to volume 1: Samir Amin, Pat Cox, Andre Gunder Frank, Johan Galtung,
Peter Herrmann, Victor Krassilchtchikov, Rabbi Michael Lerner, Clara Mira Salama,
Arno Tausch, Alfred Tovias, and Patrick Ziltener
Contributors to Volume 2U: Syed M. Ahsan, Gernot Köhler, Syed Mansoob Murshed,
Hans-Heinrich Nolte, John R. Oneal, Kunibert Raffer, Bruce Russett, David Skidmore,
Arno Tausch, The First Declaration of Alexandria, and Patrick Ziltener